Spatial analysis of resources and environmental carrying capacity in Iran

Urbanization and mass movement of the population from rural areas and small cities to megacities have led to environmental, economic, and social problems in Iran. In dealing with these challenges, assessing resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) is considered an effective method to leverage space and capital to achieve sustainable development. This study aimed to rank the provincial RECC in Iran. Toward this purpose, environmental indices were generated from remotely sensed and statistical census data. Then, the provinces were scored in terms of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacities, and RECC using the mean variance analysis method. Results demonstrated that in most areas, there is no relationship between economic and infrastructural capacities and development. Statistically, a correlation coefficient of −0.53 between economic and environmental carrying capacities indicated excessive use of environmental capacities. Moreover, the spatial distribution pattern of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacity was entirely heterogeneous between the provinces; there was a northeast–southwest pattern in terms of infrastructural capacity and an economic pattern from north to south. The distribution pattern of RECC is most consistent with the environmental capacity, pointing at the high weight of the indicators of the RECC model. In conclusion, this research offers a new vision for policymakers and provides a theoretical and applicable framework for implementing sustainable strategies in land-use planning. It is recommended that the RECC concept and tools can be used not only for planning but also for measuring the efficiency of spatial development programs and establishing land balances in the region.     

Mowers versus growers: Riparian buffer management in the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains,USA

Despite long-standing knowledge of the benefits of riparian buffers for mitigating nonpoint source pollution, many streams are unprotected by buffers. Even landowners who understand ecological values of buffers mow riparian vegetation to the streambank. Do trends in rural riparian conditions reflect the development of riparian forest science? What motivates residential riparian management actions? Using high-resolution orthoimagery, we quantified riparian conditions and trends between 1998 and 2015 in the rural upper Little Tennessee River basin in Macon County, North Carolina and explored how landowners view riparian zone management and riparian restoration programs. Buffer composition in 2015 was as follows: no buffer (32.5%), narrow (19.3%), forested (26.7%), shrub (7.2%), and intermediate (7.0%). Relative to 1998, the greatest decrease occurred in the no buffer class (−17.7%, 46 km) and the largest increases occurred in the shrub (+72.5%, 20 km) and narrow (12.6%, 14 km) classes. Forested buffer marginally increased. Semi-structured interview data suggest that landowners prioritize recreational and scenic aspects of riparian buffers over ecological functions such as filtration and bank stabilization. Riparian restoration programs might be made more enticing to non-adopters if outreach language appealed to landowner priorities, design elements demonstrated intentional management, and program managers highlighted areas where ecological goals and landowner values align.     

Co-development of an integrated assessment framework to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of selected nature-based water treatment technologies in Sri Lanka,The Philippines,and Vietnam

Water quality is a critical challenge in Asia in the context of growing industrialization, urbanization, and climate change. Nature-based solutions (NbS) could play an important role in reducing urban water pollution, while generating multiple co-benefits that could make cities more liveable and resilient. In this regard, a number of pilot and demonstration projects have been set up to explore their potential across cities in Asia. Their effectiveness and impacts, however, have not been adequately documented, thus how they can be sustained, replicated and up-scaled remain poorly understood. This study aims to contribute to addressing this challenge by co-developing an integrated assessment framework and employing it to understand how existing evaluations of NbS in the region can be improved. It focuses specifically on a set of nature-based solutions that have been employed for water treatment across six cities in Southeast Asia (two in each Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Vietnam), namely, floating wetlands, constructed wetlands and maturation ponds. The study also suggests specific methodologies for capturing a set of core indicators considered relevant for assessing the effectiveness and capturing the multi-faceted impacts of the examined NbS.     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

Between Active Seekers and Non-Users: Segments of Science-related Media Usage in Switzerland and Germany

ABSTRACT

Citizens’ attitudes toward science are related to their use of science-related information from various sources. Evidence is scarce regarding citizens’ individual media repertoires for staying informed about science as segmentation studies so far have primarily focused on scientific attitudes. In this paper, we explore audience segments regarding their science-related information behavior and whether such segments are comparable or vary between two countries with similar information environments. Based on two surveys in Switzerland and Germany, we identify national audience segments that differ in their science-related information repertoires, and analyze their sociodemographic characteristics and science-related attitudes. In both countries, we find very comparable information user segments ranging from those who inform themselves frequently about science (“Active Seekers”/“Science Consumers”) to those who hardly get in contact with any information about science and research (“Non-Users”). Those segments which get in contact with information about science frequently show generally more positive attitudes.     

基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病，在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上，提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型，在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子，将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设，提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象，进行数据拟合和预测分析，其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据，并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数，检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面，改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级，曲线拟合度较高，预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

Diversity of antibiotic resistance genes and encoding ribosomal protection proteins gene in livestock waste polluted environment

The rapid development and increase of antibiotic resistance are global phenomena resulting from the extensive use of antibiotics in human clinics and animal feeding operations. Antibiotics can promote the occurrence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), which can be transferred horizontally to humans and animals through water and the food chain. In this study, the presence and abundance of ARGs in livestock waste was monitored by quantitative PCR. A diverse set of bacteria and tetracycline resistance genes encoding ribosomal protection proteins (RPPs) from three livestock farms and a river were analyzed through denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). The abundance of sul(I) was 10³ to 10⁵ orders of magnitude higher than that of sul(II). Among 11 tet-ARGs, the most abundant was tet(O). The results regarding bacterial diversity indicated that the presence of antibiotics might have an evident impact on bacterial diversity at every site, particularly at the investigated swine producer. The effect of livestock waste on the bacterial diversity of soil was stronger than that of water. Furthermore, a sequencing analysis showed that tet(M) exhibited two genotypes, while the other RPPs-encoding genes exhibited at least three genotypes. This study showed that various ARGs and RPPs-encoding genes are particularly widespread among livestock.     

我国区域空气污染治理效率及其影响机制——基于超效率SBM模型和门槛回归模型

随着人民对美好生活需求的日益增长,政府空气污染治理的效率问题日益得到重视。本文从地方政府空气污染治理效率及其影响因素的视角入手,以全国30个省份为研究对象,运用超效率SBM模型测算2003—2015年各省级区域的空气污染治理效率。在此基础上,运用门槛回归模型分析政府空气污染治理效率的影响机制。研究表明:①地区间空气污染治理效率差异性较为显著。中部、西部空气污染治理效率整体呈下降趋势。东部和东北地区空气污染治理效率则上升比较平稳。②政策规划、碳源、污染物排放和环境治理投入表现出双重门槛特征,其中碳源对空气污染治理效率影响显著,而以碳为首的能源消费结构则主要对中部和西部空气污染治理效率产生影响。落后地区政府应注重产业升级,财政上应对碳税等税目进行征收,产业上应鼓励企业创新,并对落后企业进行倒逼升级。     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Characteristics that make trophy hunting of giant pandas inconceivable

In November 1928, Theodore Jr. and Kermit Roosevelt led an expedition to China with the expressed purpose of being the first Westerners to kill the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). The expedition lasted 8 months and resulted in the brothers shooting a giant panda in the mountains of Sichuan Province. Given the concurrent attention in the popular press describing this celebrated expedition, the giant panda was poised to be trophy hunted much like other large mammals around the world. Today, however, the killing of giant pandas, even for the generation of conservation revenue, is unthinkable for reasons related to the species itself and the context, in time and space, in which the species was popularized in the West. We found that the giant panda's status as a conservation symbol, exceptional charisma and gentle disposition, rarity, value as a nonconsumptive ecotourism attraction, and endemism are integral to the explanation of why the species is not trophy hunted. We compared these intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics with 20 of the most common trophy-hunted mammals to determine whether the principles applying to giant pandas are generalizable to other species. Although certain characteristics of the 20 trophy-hunted mammals aligned with the giant panda, many did not. Charisma, economic value, and endemism, in particular, were comparatively unique to the giant panda. Our analysis suggests that, at present, exceptional characteristics may be necessary for certain mammals to be excepted from trophy hunting. However, because discourse relating to the role of trophy hunting in supporting conservation outcomes is dynamic in both science and society, we suspect these valuations will also change in future.